基于可信性理论的模糊潮流方法

目前的模糊潮流算法基于模糊集理论,但需要严格的数学理论基础和测试标准.可信性理论是研究模糊现象的数学分支,它建立了与概率论相对应的模糊论公理化体系.基于可信性理论提出一种通用模糊潮流算法,该算法不仅能够给出潮流结果的可能性分布及其期望值和方差等数字指标,而且能够统计设备越限期望值和系统风险值.一方面,该方法使得模糊潮流的计算结果能进行直观的分析比较,提高了实用性;另一方面,该方法具有严格的数学基础,所以可以成为模糊潮流的测试标准.以6节点系统和某实际地区电网的算例表明了所提出的方法的合理性和有效性.

Fuzzy Power Flow Based on Credibility Theory

While the fuzzy power flow is based on fuzzy set theory and has no standard solution till now,the credibility theory,a mathematical branch in the study of fuzzy phenomenon,provides the axiomatic foundation for fuzziness.A general fuzzy power flow algorithm is developed based on credibility theory.The algorithm can not only give the possibility distribution of the power flow results,their expected values and variances,but also calculate the expected values of overloaded equipment's graveness and the system risk.On the one hand,the calculation results of fuzzy power flow can be analyzed and compared directly by the algorithm with improved practicability.On the other hand,it has solid mathematical theory foundation and can be adopted as a benchmark testing method for the power flow.Numerical tests on a 6-node system and an actual regional power grid verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this algorithm.