中国短期风电功率预测技术现状与误差分析

风电功率预测是风电调度运行的基础,对提高中国风电消纳水平具有重要作用。以短期风电功率预测为研究对象,针对短期风电功率预测涉及的主要技术环节,分别梳理了国内外的研究历程,对比分析了国内外短期功率预测技术的优势。在此基础上,介绍了中国风电功率预测系统的建设情况和实际应用中的预测误差情况,从时间、空间、概率分布3个维度分析了误差的特点,从输入数据、功率预测模型2个环节分析了误差产生原因,并总结了全球面临的共性问题和中国面临的特有问题。最后从应用角度出发,对中国短期风电功率预测精度提升策略给出了相关的建议。

Status and Error Analysis of Short-term Forecasting Technology of Wind Power in China

As the basis of wind power dispatch and operation, wind power forecasting plays an important role in improving the wind power accommodation level in China. Taking short-term wind power forecasting as the research object and focusing on the main technologies involved in the short-term wind power forecasting, the research history at home and abroad is sorted out, and the advantages of short-term power forecasting technologies at home and abroad are compared. On this basis, the construction of wind power forecasting systems in China and the forecasting errors in practical applications are introduced. The characteristics of errors are analyzed from the three dimensions of time, space and probability distribution. The causes of the errors are analyzed from the input data and the power prediction model, and the common problems facing the world and the special problems facing China are summarized. Finally, from an application point of view, relevant suggestions are given to improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting strategies in China.