大面积停电应急抢修兵棋演练系统建模与分析

大面积停电事故是台风等灾害侵袭造成的严重影响之一,其客户影响面大,涉及地域广,给社会经济和人民生活带来很大的损失和不便,尤其对电力企业的服务水平带来极大的挑战。基于兵棋推演的大面积停电应急抢修演练系统能够克服传统演练模式的局限性,便于组织应急演练,锻炼统一联动、平战结合的应急处置能力。给出了基于兵棋推演的演练系统三层模型结构形式,并对兵棋各要素进行了分析和建模;以某大面积停电事故应急抢修兵棋演练过程为例,对兵棋的决策模型、评价模型进行了描述,并给出了演练的分析建议。结果表明,兵棋系统能提供灵活方便的演练平台,有效提高应急演练的实效性,结合演练评价结果,能够量化地分析演练过程并提出有益的改进建议。

Modeling and Analysis of Wargaming Drill System for Wide-area Power Outage Emergency Repairing

A wide-area power outage accidents is one of the accidents easily caused by disasters such as typhoons. It has great impact on power clients and involves a wide area, which may bring great losses to the social economy and inconvenience to people’s lives, and challenge the service levels of power enterprises as well. The wargaming-based drill system for wide-area power outage emergency repairing can overcome the shortage of traditional drill mode. It’s flexible and convenient, and can help to improve the emergency disposal ability. A three-layer model structure form of the wargaming-based drill system was proposed, and the related elements of the wargaming system were analyzed and modeled. With the case study of a wide-area power outage emergency repairing drill, the decision model and evaluation model were also described. The wargaming system that provides a flexible and convenient drill platform, and effectively promotes the effectiveness of the emergency drills was represented. Based on the results of the drill evaluation, quantitative analysis of the drill process and useful proposal for improvement were given.