基于蒙特卡罗算法的发输电系统充裕性模型及评估方法研究

发电容量充裕性评估可为电力系统的规划及运行提供决策依据,通过对发电容量充裕性的相关指标和蒙特卡罗仿真算法研究,建立了考虑电网主要随机因素的发输电系统充裕度概率评估模型,设计了基于蒙特卡罗法的可靠性仿真流程,并用该方法评估了基于现有系统备用配置情况的南方电网发电容量充裕性,验证了该方案和模型的正确性及可行性,结合仿真结果推荐了南方电网备用确定原则,为电网的规划设计及其安全运行提供了有价值的参考依据。

Study of Generation and Transmission System Adequacy Probability Models and Evaluation based on Monte Carlo Method

Abstract ： Generation capacity adequacy assessment could provide decision basis for planning and operation of power system. By study on some related index of generation capacity adequacy and Monte Carlo simulation, generation capacity adequacy evaluation probabili- ty models which consider main random factors are established. Also reliability simulation process based on Monte Carlo method is presented. And based on China Southern Power Grid current reserve configuration, generation capacity adequacy is evaluated using this method. Results of example calculation show that this scheme and models are correct and feasible. Combined with the simulation re- sults China Southern Power Grid reserve determination principle is recommended, which will provide the valuable reference for power grid planning and operation.