基于潮流转移识别的电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型

在元件停运概率历史统计值的基础上，综合考虑潮流因素的影响，给出了元件停运概率曲线，并采用严重度指标从系统静态安全的角度评估了连锁故障的后果。为了缩小安全分析的范围，根据实时网络拓扑结构建立相应的矩阵，经过矩阵运算，得到过载支路对应的并行断面；利用动态解耦潮流算法计算并行断面内支路的潮流，将潮流增加较大的支路作为下一故障环节的备选支路集。最后以IEEE39节点系统为对象进行仿真，验证了此方法的可行性与有效性。

Risk Assessment Model of Cascading Failures in Power System Based on Identification of Power Flow Transferring

This paper proposes a risk assessment model of cascading failures in power system based on identifica- tion of power flow transferring. Taking the influence of the factor of power flow, the model gives the probability curve of components outage which is based on its historical statistics. And consequences of cascading failures is as- sessed by using severity indexes from the perspective of static security. In order to narrow the scope of the safety a- nalysis, the matrix corresponding to real-time network topology is built and after the matrix operation the corre- sponding parallel section is gotten. The branches in parallel section whose power flow increases larger are selected as aJtemative branch set of the next fault link, and the power flow of these branches is calculated by the dynamic decoupled power flow algorithm. Finally, the simulation of IEEE 39-bus is done which proves the feasibility and ef- fectiveness of this method.