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| 混沌理论和支持向量机结合的负荷预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 张智晟,马龙,孙雅明.混沌理论和支持向量机结合的负荷预测模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2008,20(6). |
| 作者姓名： | 张智晟 马龙 孙雅明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛大学自动化工程学院,青岛,266071 2. 山东电力超高压公司青岛管理处,青岛,266071 3. 天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,天津,300072 |
| 基金项目： | 山东省教育厅科技计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 根据电力负荷序列的混沌特性,提出混沌理论和蚁群优化支持向量机结合的电力系统短期负荷预测新方法,以相空间重构理论确定支持向量机的输入量个数;iJII练样本集由对应预测相点的最近邻相点集构成,且是按预测相点步进动态相轨迹生成;采用蚁群优化算法对支持向量机敏感参数进行优化,从而可增强预测模型对混沌动力学的联想和泛化推理能力,提高负荷预测的精度和提高预测稳定性.对某地区负荷系统日、周预测仿真测试,证明其可获得稳定的较高预测精度. |
| 关 键 词： | 短期负荷预测 优化支持向量机 混沌理论 蚁群优化算法 |
Load Forecasting Model Using Chaos Theory and Support Vector Machine |
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| ZHANG Zhi-sheng,MA Long,SUN Ya-ming.Load Forecasting Model Using Chaos Theory and Support Vector Machine[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2008,20(6). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Zhi-sheng MA Long SUN Ya-ming |
| Affiliation: | ZHANG Zhi-sheng1,MA Long2,SUN Ya-ming3(1.School of Automation Engineering,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China,2.Qingdao Administration of Sh,ong Electric Transmission & Substation Company,3.School of Electrical Engineering , Automation,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China) |
| Abstract: | A new approach of STLF (short-term load forecasting) in power systems using chaos theory and OSVM (optimal support vector machine) based on ant colony algorithm is presented according to the chaotic character of the load series.The input number of OSVM is decided by PSRT (phase space reconstruction theory).The training samples are formed by the nearest neighbor forecasting phase points,and they are generated by means of the stepping dynamic space track of the forecasting phase point.The sensitive parameters... |
| Keywords: | short-term load forecasting (STLF) optimal support vector machine (OSVM) chaos theory ant colony optimization algorithm (ACOA) |
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