长期合约电量对电力市场价格影响的定量分析

长期合约交易是有效抑制市场力行为、促进电力市场稳定发展的措施之一。然而,近年来许多文献对长期合约的作用仅限于定性分析。以博弈论为理论基础,建立古诺竞争模型,分析了市场力产生的机理,对不同经济模式下的价格变化进行了详细的数学推导。并根据电力系统安全稳定性要求,计算了长期合约电量占总发电量不能超过的最大比例,指出该比例与发电系统和输电系统的可靠性、电网的安全性、损耗是密切相关的。最后,利用算例对比方法进行了验证。结果表明,长期合约能够有效地抑制市场力行为,随着长期合约交易比例的增大,市场价格逐步降低,同时整个电力市场电量供应增加。

Quantitive analysis of forward contract's effect on power price

Long-term contract is one of effective methods for refraining market power and improving the power market stability.However,the roles of long-term contract are limited to the analysis of nature.In this paper,a dynamic model based on game theory is proposed to describe the source of market power and deduce formulations of power market price in different economic environments.The max proportion of long-term contract power is calculated and it is realted closely with the reliability,security and loss of generation and transmision syetems.Finally,a sample is used to test the exact effection of long-term contract on power price.The results show that it is valid by using long-term contract to restrain market power.In addition,with the proportion of long-term contract increasing,power price will lower gradually and the volume of power will expands in the whole power market.