基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估

目前配电网风险评估直接应用于实际预警预案还存在一定困难。研究并提出了一种基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估方法。通过分析各类灾害下相应最小过热区域的停运概率,计算灾害下配网负荷停电风险,并以此为判据进行实时预警预案。考虑了配网自身的自愈控制,克服了传统配电网灾害风险评估中的保守计算。显著提升了计算速度,有能力评估灾害下多条关联馈线段同时成为初始故障源时的风险情况,并量化了灾害下配网负荷的停电损失,可用于比较不同工况下不同灾害的危害程度。最后以实际城市配电网为例验证了所提出方法的实用性、通用性和高效性。

Risk assessment of urban distribution network under disaster based on minimum over-heated region

Currently difficulties exist still in directly applying urban distribution network risk assessment to the practical early warning and plans. This paper proposes a risk assessment method of urban distribution network under disaster based on minimum over-heated region. By analyzing the outage probability of relevant minimum over-heated region under various disasters, it calculates the outage risk value of loads and applies it as a criterion for timely early warning and plans. This paper takes the self-healing control of distribution network into consideration, overcomes the conservative calculation of traditional risk assessment; significantly enhances the computing speed while quantifies the power loss to compare the extent of damage under different operational states. This paper uses the real urban distribution network as an example to verify the practicality, versatility and high-efficiency of this method.