基于灰色关联分析的电网安全事故关键致因分析

探讨和研究电网安全事故的影响因素及控制已成为预防电网安全事故发生的热点问题。为揭示电网安全事故发生的深层机理，基于事故致因理论，采用质性分析和灰色关联分析的方法，分析中国电网安全事故的关键致因。研究发现，电网安全事故的影响因素主要包括主体因素（认知因素、行为因素和身体因素）、过程因素（组织氛围因素和组织过程因素）、对象因素（设备可靠性低和设备管理松懈）及情境因素（作业环境因素和非作业环境因素）。灰色关联分析表明：电网安全事故的致因因素可以分为红色危险因素（r≥0.8）、橙色警备因素（0.7≤r＜0.8）和黄色警告因素（r＜0.7），其中，组织氛围因素、认知因素和行为因素是电网安全事故的关键致因因素。在此基础上提出电网安全事故管理的政策建议，以期推动中国电网安全发展进程。

Investigation of Key Causes for Power Grid Safety Events Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

Investigation and study of the influencing factors for power grid safety events and their controlling measures has become a hot issue to prevent power grid safety events. In order to reveal the mechanism of power grid safety events, an analysis is made of the key cause factors for power grid safety events in China by means of qualitative analysis and grey correlation analysis based on accident causation theory. It is found that the influencing factors for power safety events mainly include subject factors(cognitive factor, behavior factor and physical factor), process factors(organization atmosphere factor and organization process factor), object factors (low equipment reliability factor and lax equipment management factor) and situational factors(operational factor and non-operational environmental factor). Grey correlation analysis shows that the cause factors for power grid events can be divided into red risk factor (r≥0.8), orange warning factor (0.7≤r＜0.8) and yellow pre-warning factor (r＜0.7), of which the factors of organization atmosphere factor, cognitive factor and behavior factor are the key cause factors for power grid events. In the end, some policy proposals are put forward for power grid safety event management to strengthen power grid safety in China.