中国新能源发展成本分析和政策建议

新能源可持续发展需要依托自身技术进步和成本下降，降低补贴依赖，国家也提出了到2020年风电在发电侧平价上网，光伏发电在用户侧平价上网的目标。基于中国新能源发电成本历史变动情况分析和未来成本趋势研判，预测了2020年和2030年中国新能源发电成本，分析了未来平价上网情况，结果显示，2020年基本实现“三北”地区风电在发电侧平价上网和东中部光伏发电在用户侧平价上网，2030年光伏发电平均度电成本有望低于风电。针对目前需要解决的几个关键问题，提出了促进中国新能源可持续发展的政策建议。

Cost Analysis and Policy Suggestions of China's New Energy Development

Sustainable development of new energy relies on technical advancement and cost reduction to reduce subsidy dependence. Government also set target that wind power reaches grid parity on distribution side and solar power reaches grid parity on customer side in 2020. Based on analysis of China's new energy power generation cost, including historical changes and future trends, new energy power generation cost in 2020 and 2030, as well as situation of future grid parity, are predicted. The result shows wind power in “Three North” will reach grid parity on distribution side and solar power in east central China will reach grid parity on customer side in 2020. LCOE for solar PV is expected to be lower than wind generation in 2030. With consideration of existing critical problems, several policy suggestions to promote sustainable development of new energy in China are also proposed.