广域分布式光伏发电监测与出力估计研究

为准确评估光伏出力对电力系统的运行影响，掌握分布式发电的实时数据，为调度中心提供电网的实时运行状态，需开展广域分布式光伏发电监测与出力估计研究。首先，提出光伏全局出力估计的分布式光伏国-省-地一体化信息建模方法，实现广域分布式光伏发电的有线与无线全景监测；其次，开展不同场景下分布式光伏出力特性研究，通过掌握组件类型、安装方式、地理位置、光资源分布、地形条件等场景对分布式光伏出力的影响，对分布式光伏进行聚合分析，并提出全局出力估计方法；最后，研发广域分布式光伏发电聚合分析和全局出力估计系统，并在省调示范应用。

Wide-Area Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Monitoring and Output Estimation

In order to accurately evaluate the impact of photovoltaic output on the operation of power system, get the real-time data of distributed generation, and provide the real-time operation status of power grid for dispatching decision-making, the wide area distributed photovoltaic power generation monitoring and output estimation are studied in this paper. Firstly, a distributed photovoltaic integrated information modeling method for global power estimation is proposed, and a wired and wireless panoramic monitoring for wide area distributed photovoltaic power generation is realized; Secondly, the research on distributed photovoltaic output characteristics under different scenarios is carried out. With insight on the impact of scenarios including component types, installation methods, geographical locations, light resource distribution and terrain conditions on distributed photovoltaic output, the aggregation analysis on distributed photovoltaic output is carried out and the global output estimation method is proposed; Thirdly, a system for aggregation analysis on wide area distributed photovoltaic power generation and estimation of photovoltaic global output is developed and applied as demonstration in the provincial dispatching center.