基于可靠性准则和绝缘年龄评估的变压器备用分析

针对传统的变压器备用分析未考虑设备的实际老化失效等问题，提出一种基于可靠性准则和绝缘年龄评估的变压器备用分析方法，以合理确定备用变压器的贮备数量和采购时间。首先，基于变压器油中的实测状态监测数据，拟合绝缘纸聚合度，并估算变压器当前及未来的绝缘年龄；其次，通过绝缘年龄预测设备的老化失效不可用率，结合可修复失效确定设备总的失效不可用率；最后，根据系统可靠性水平的要求，利用可靠性分析理论为变压器组制定备品策略。针对南方某区域电网22台220 kV变压器的实测数据，进行仿真分析，验证了所提方法的有效性。

The Spare Analysis of Transformers Based on Reliability Criterion and Insulation Age Evaluation

In view of the fact that the traditional spare analysis methods for transformers does not take into account the actual aging failures of transformers, in this paper, based on reliability criterion and insulation age evaluation, a spare analysis method for transformers is proposed to reasonably determine the storage quantity and purchasing time of spare transformers. Firstly, the degree of polymerization (DP) of the insulation paper can be fitted using the measured condition monitoring data collected from the transformer oil, and the current and future insulation ages of the transformer can be then estimated. Secondly, the unavailability of equipment caused by aging failure is determined by predicting the insulation age. Then, combining the repairable failure, the total unavailability of equipment caused by aging failure is determined. Finally, according to the requirement of system reliability level, the spare parts strategy for transformer group is formulated by using reliability analysis theory. The measured data of a regional power grid consisting of 22 transformers of 220 kV in the south of China were used to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. According to the measured data of 22 transformers of 220 kV in a southern regional power grid, simulation analysis is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.