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| 基于自组织临界理论的南方电网停电事故宏观规律研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘映尚,吴文传,冯永青,张伯明,吕颖.基于自组织临界理论的南方电网停电事故宏观规律研究[J].中国电力,2007,40(7):37-41. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘映尚 吴文传 冯永青 张伯明 吕颖 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学,电机系,电力系统国家重点实验室,北京,100084;中国南方电网公司,广东,广州,510623 2. 清华大学,电机系,电力系统国家重点实验室,北京,100084 3. 中国南方电网公司,广东,广州,510623 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
| 摘 要： | 采用自组织临界理论研究了中国南方电网发生事故的宏观规律,初步证明中国南方电网具有自组织临界性(SOC)的一些重要性质。一方面,利用变尺度(R/S)分析方法对比分析了北美和中国南方电网的事故符合幂次定律及其发展趋势,同时表明Hurst指数代表的事故发展趋势符合2个电网的实际情况;另一方面,以海南电网为研究对象,建立了模拟电力系统连锁故障的最优潮流方法(OPA)模型,并进行了数值模拟研究,揭示了其SOC特征。 |
| 关 键 词： | 自组织临界 连锁故障 R/S分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9649（2007）07-0037-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-11 |
A research on statistic orderliness of China Southern Power Grid blackout based on self-organized criticality |
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| LIU Ying-shang,WU Wen-chuan,FENG Yong-qing,ZHANG Bo-ming,LU Ying.A research on statistic orderliness of China Southern Power Grid blackout based on self-organized criticality[J].Electric Power,2007,40(7):37-41. | |
| Authors: | LIU Ying-shang WU Wen-chuan FENG Yong-qing ZHANG Bo-ming LU Ying |
| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Lab. of Power Systems, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. China Southern Power Grid Company, Guangzhou 510623, China |
| Abstract: | Based on complex system theory, the statistic orderliness of power system blackout was investigated in this paper. On the one hand, the statistic data of power system blackouts occurred in North America and China southern power grids were well analyzed. And the relation between the severity of power system blackout and the occurrence frequency of the blackouts were proved to be in accord with the power law. Further more, the R/S method was used to analysis the evolvement trends of these two power systems' reliability. On the other hand, an OPA model was adopted to study the dynamics process of cascading outages in power transmission systems. Based on this model, a thorough numerical study has been carried out for Hainan Power System, and the results exhibit that this power system has some characteristics of self-organized criticality. |
| Keywords: | self-organized criticality cascading failure rescaled range statistics |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
