综合的结构可靠度函数预测模型

基于结构产品的现场失效数据样本较少以及物理结构模型可靠性评估存在误差，建立了综合考虑失效数据和结构失效模式及衰退机理的结构可靠度函数预测模型。采用一阶可靠性方法(FORM)进行物理结构可靠度评估，将失效数据方法得到的可靠度和物理结构方法得到的可靠度作为输入进行模糊回归，估计概率分布参数。建立的可靠度函数预测模型能较精确地预测结构产品随时间变化的可靠度，为结构产品的可靠性设计以及维修策略的制定奠定了理论基础。通过实例验证了该模型的可行性。

Integrated Prediction Model for Structural Reliability Function

Since the samples for some structural products are very few and the reliability obtained from the physical model has some errors, an integrated reliability function prediction model based on failure data, failure modes and degradation mechanics of the structural product is proposed. First order reliability method (FORM) is implemented to calculate the reliability based on physical model. Both the reliability from failure data and physical model are considered as fuzzy inputs to estimate the parameters in the probability distribution. The proposed reliability function prediction model can accurately predict the time-dependent reliability of the structural product. Reliability-based design and maintenance strategy can be properly made in terms of the predicted time-dependent reliability. An engineering example is used to illustrate the proposed reliability function prediction model.