| GM(1,1)循环残差修正模型及其应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐世星,王英新,张艳华.GM(1,1)循环残差修正模型及其应用研究[J].承德石油高等专科学校学报,2010,12(4):52-55,58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐世星 王英新 张艳华 |
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| 作者单位： | 承德石油高等专科学校,河北,承德,067000;承德县上板城镇中学,河北,承德,067411 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省科学技术研究课题:Z2010210 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了GM（1,1）循环残差修正模型,并与经典GM（1,1）进行比较,考察改进模型的预测效果。结合经典GM（1,1）模型,使用预测序列与残差序列绝对值之和来构造新序列,对新序列进行建模。通过M atlab软件编程实现了该模型,并将其应用于2009-2010年入境游客量的预测。将本模型应用于2003年至2008年入境游客量预测建模上,其结果明显好于经典GM（1,1）模型,且预测效果更好。基于经典GM（1,1）模型建立了GM（1,1）循环残差修正模型。根据实证分析和比较发现,该预测模型是合格的,并且拟合精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 GM(1 1)循环残差修正模型 旅游人数预测 |
Research of RRGM(1,1) Model and Its Application |
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| TANG Shi-xing,WANG Ying-xin,ZHANG Yan-hua.Research of RRGM(1,1) Model and Its Application[J].Journal of Chengde Petroleum College,2010,12(4):52-55,58. |
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| Authors: | TANG Shi-xing WANG Ying-xin ZHANG Yan-hua |
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| Affiliation: | TANG Shi-xing 1,WANG Ying-xin1,ZHANG Yan-hua2(1.Chengde Petroleum College,Chengde 067000,Hebei,China,2.Shang Bancheng Middle School of ChengDe county,Chengde 067411,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we establish an RRGM(1,1) model and make a comparison between GM(1,1) and RRGM(1,1) to check the effectiveness of the improved forecasting model-RRGM(1,1).Referring to the classical model-GM(1,1),we formulate a new sequence by using the sum of predicting sequence and the absolute value of residual sequence and write a program for this new sequence by using Matlab to forecast the volume of entrance tourists in 2009 and 2010.By using the new model to forecast the volume of entrance tourists from... |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model RRGM(1 tourism forecast |
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