基于三维不对称 Copula 函数峰量联合概率分布研究

基于三维不对称Gumbel Copula函数构建了洪峰、时段洪量联合分布，探讨了洪峰和时段洪量之间的概率特性。首先建立了洪峰、3 d洪量和7 d洪量的三维不对称Gumbel Copula联合分布函数，然后运用极大似然法估计了三维Gumbel Copula函数的参数，最后求得洪峰和时段洪量之间的条件概率分布，分析了洪峰、洪量间的概率特性。以大渡河流域大金川站1960—2013年间的洪峰、3 d洪量和7 d洪量为例进行了应用。研究成果为洪峰、洪量相关关系的研究提供了新途径。

Research on the Joint Probability Distribution of Flood Peak and Period Flood Volume based on Three-dimensional Asymmetric Copula Function

In this paper, the joint probability distribution of flood peak and period flood volume was constructed based on three-dimensional asymmetric Copula function.And the probabilistic characteristics between the flood peak and period flood volume were discussed by joint probability distribution..First, the joint probability distribution of flood peak, 3 days flood volume and 7 days flood volume was established based on the three-dimensional asymmetric Gumbel Copula function, and then maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of the three-dimensional asymmetric Gumbel Copula function, finally the conditional probability distribution between flood peak and period flood volume was deduced and the probabilistic characteristics between the flood peak and volume were analyzed.This method was applied in the Dadu River using flood peak, 3 days flood volume and 7 days flood volume datas（1960—2013） from the Dajinchuan hydrological station.These results will provide a new approach for the study of correlation between flood peak and flood volume.