| 组合灰色模型在电力系统负荷预处理中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李慧.组合灰色模型在电力系统负荷预处理中的应用[J].北京机械工业学院学报,2010,25(2):70-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京信息科技大学自动化学院,北京,100192 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市教育委员会科技计划面上项目，北京市属市管高等学校人才强教深化学术创新团队项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据GM（1,1）模型的特点,通过在数据序列前面加一个非负数,提出了加数GM（1,1）模型的方法。该方法克服了原始模型中不能利用第一点数据的缺陷,提高了原始数据的利用率。同时,结合电力负荷呈日周期性变化的特性,提出了基于关联度的组合灰色预测模型用于电力系统负荷预处理。实例表明,加数模型的预测精度优于原始模型的预测精度,组合灰色模型比单一的灰色模型在预测精度上有明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 关联度 组合灰色模型 |
Application of combined gray model to power load data pretreatment |
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| LI Hui.Application of combined gray model to power load data pretreatment[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Machinery,2010,25(2):70-74. |
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| Authors: | LI Hui |
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| Affiliation: | LI Hui(School of Automation,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100192,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the characteristic of GM（1,1） model,an addend GM（1,1） model is presented by adding a non-negative datum before data serials.This method overcomes the limitation that the first datum cannot be used in original model,and improves the utilization ratio of original data.Furthermore,combining the rule of daily periodic change of power loads,a combined gray forecast model based on conjunction degree is put forward to apply to power load data pretreatment.Case studies show that the forecast precision of addend model is higher than that of original model,and the forecast precision of combined gray model is obviously higher than that of single gray model. |
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| Keywords: | GM（1 1） model conjunction degree combined gray model |
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