| 动态新息GM(1,1)在卫星电池阵功率预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 谷吉海,姜兴渭,巴兴强,范显峰,黄文虎.动态新息GM(1,1)在卫星电池阵功率预测中的应用[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(1):28-30,34. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 谷吉海 姜兴渭 巴兴强 范显峰 黄文虎 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学,航天学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001
2. 东北林业大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150040 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目 ( 863 2 0 0 2AA72 10 63 ) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据观测到的历史数据对卫星理发池阵输出功率的未来值进行预测，可实现对电池阵性能劣化的早期预报。灰色预测方法的GM(1，1)模型只适合对单调递增或递减时间序列进行预测，针对卫星电池阵输出功率具有波动变化的趋势特征，采用实时在线的方法，建立了动态新息GM(1，1)预测模型，经实例预测验证，动态新息GM（1，1）模型可明显地提高预测精度，并且能对电池阵输出功率的波动变化趋势正确预测。该建模方法对其他非单调时间序列的工程预测也具有参考价值。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 动态新息GM（1 1）模型 卫星电池阵 功率预测 输出功率 卫星电源系统 |
| 文章编号： | 0367-6234(2003)01-0028-03 |
Application of dynamic innovation GM (1,1) to power prediction of satellite battery array |
| |
| GU Ji hai ,JIANG Xing wei ,BA Xing qiang ,FAN Xian feng ,HUANG Wen hu.Application of dynamic innovation GM (1,1) to power prediction of satellite battery array[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2003,35(1):28-30,34. |
| |
| Authors: | GU Ji hai JIANG Xing wei BA Xing qiang FAN Xian feng HUANG Wen hu |
| |
| Affiliation: | GU Ji hai 1,JIANG Xing wei 1,BA Xing qiang 2,FAN Xian feng 1,HUANG Wen hu 1 |
| |
| Abstract: | The early forecast of satellite battery array's performance attenuation can been realized according to the prediction of historical datum of satellite battery array's output power. The GM(1,1) of grey prediction method fits model for time series prediction of monotonic increasing or degression only. A real time method is proposed according to the fluctuant character of batter matrix output power. The prediction model of dynamic innovation GM(1,1) is founded in this paper. The prediction precision is improved greatly by example. What's more, the fluctuant tendency of batter array output power can be predicted exactly. The method of model making has referential value for other prediction of non monotonic time series. |
| |
| Keywords: | grey prediction dynamic innovation GM(1 1) model satellite battery array power prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
