GM(1,1)模型的改进及其在火灾致死人数预测中的应用 |
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引用本文: | 杨坦,吴睿,王超,汪洋.GM(1,1)模型的改进及其在火灾致死人数预测中的应用[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2017(6):83-85. |
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作者姓名: | 杨坦 吴睿 王超 汪洋 |
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作者单位: | 安徽新华学院土木与环境工程学院,合肥,230088 |
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基金项目: | 国家自然科学基金项目"城市变化环境下水资源系统脆弱性机理及其对人类活动的响应研究",安徽新华学院校级科研团队建设项目"安全工程科研团队",安徽新华学院科研团队研究项目"灰色 — 尖点突变模型在建筑火灾发展趋势预测中的应用",安徽省大学生创新创业训练计划项目"基于改进型GM |
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摘 要: | 为了弥补传统GM(1,1)模型在波动数据序列预测中误差较大的缺陷,采用一阶差分方法对初始数据序列进行改进,构建了一阶差分GM(1,1)模型。分别应用传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶差分GM(1,1)模型对2009—2016年火灾致死人数进行预测分析。结果显示,一阶差分GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于传统GM(1,1)模型。
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关 键 词: | GM(1 1)模型 初始值 一阶差分 火灾致死人数 |
Improvement of GM(1,1)Model and Its Research on the Prediction of Fire Mortality |
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Abstract: | In order to solve the problem that the traditional GM(1,1)model has large error in the prediction of wave data sequence,the first-order difference GM(1,1)model is constructed based on the first-order differ-ence method. Both of the two models are applied to predict the number of fire deaths from 2009 to 2016 respective-ly. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the first - order difference GM(1,1)model is higher than that of the traditional GM(1,1)model. |
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Keywords: | GM(1 1)model initial value first order difference number of fire deaths |
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