南水北调中线工程水源区丹江口水库径流周期分析

时间序列分析是随机水文分析中常用的一种数据分析方法.该方法通过频谱分析,揭示水文时间序列的周期性变化规律.阐述了频谱分析的基本概念和理论,并将其应用于丹江口水库入库径流的周期分析中,针对丹江口水库1930-2005年的实测年径流资料,利用波谱分析方法提取水文时间序列的潜周期,并采用χ2分布进行周期性检验.计算结果表明,丹江口水库年径流量存在22 a及8 a变化的准周期,它对揭示丹江口水库上游水文周期的变化规律具有一定的探讨意义,为南水北调中线工程的水资源调度提供参考依据.

Runoff period analysis of Danjiangkou Reservoir:the source area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The time series analysis is an common method of data analysis in stochastic of hydrology. It uses frequency analysis to compute the periodic change rule of hydrological time series. The basic concepts and theories of frequency analysis have been introduced to get the period of the discharge of Danjiangkou Reservoir time series based on the hydrological observation records of Danjiangkou Reservoir from the year of 1930 to 2005, and tested it by X~2 distribution method. The results show that Danjiangkou Reservoir has about 22 years and 8 years period. It will be used to reveal the law of hydrological period in the upstream of Danjiangkou Reservoir, and provide reference for water resources scheduling of Middle Route of the Southto-North Water Transfer Project.