如何给某个成本要素选择一个已知的概率分布函数

现在各种各样的成本模拟软件包被广泛的应用于建设领域，尽管这些软件包在运用中存在着一些差异，但最重要的是软件使用者在开始进行成本模拟前，应当为各个成本要素选择合适的已知概率分布函数和其参数估计值，因为模拟结果的准确度和可靠性都是依赖于这些选择。本篇论文是在已知的分布函数和估计的成本概率分布直方图之间期望值和标准差达到最小估计偏差为前提条件下，提出了一个切实可行和精确的选择方法。

How to Select a Known ProbabilityDistribution for an Element Cost

Various cost simulation software packages are extensively used in the construction industry today. There are some differences in the problems to which they are applied,but it is essential that users select suitable known distributions and estimate the parameter values for cost elements before starting any simulation. The accuracy and reliability of the simulation results depend on such selections. This paper proposes a practical and accurate selection method based upon the least differences of expected values and standard deviations between a known distribution and an estimated cost probability histogram.