| 智能组合预测法在短期电力负荷预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏安静,田丽.智能组合预测法在短期电力负荷预测中的应用研究[J].安徽机电学院学报,2011(1):62-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏安静 田丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽工程大学安徽省电气传动与控制重点实验室,安徽芜湖241000 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽工程大学青年基金资助项目（2008ya024zd）; 安徽省高校自然科研基金资助项目（kj2009b035z） |
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| 摘 要： | 提出将Kohonen网络、Elman神经网络和遗传算法结合起来建立一种智能组合预测模型,此模型能够综合各种单一预测模型的优点,内在结构随时间的推移不断变化,符合电力负荷的特点,提高了负荷预测的精度.文中给出了三种网络模型进行短期电力负荷预测的仿真结果比较,从而验证了智能组合预测模型的合理性和良好的应用前景.
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| 关 键 词： | 智能组合 短期负荷预测 Elman神经网络 遗传算法 |
Short-term electric load forecasting research based on intelligent combined forecasting model |
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| WEI An-jing,TIAN Li.Short-term electric load forecasting research based on intelligent combined forecasting model[J].Journal of Anhui Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,2011(1):62-65. |
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| Authors: | WEI An-jing TIAN Li |
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| Affiliation: | (Anhui Provicial key Laboratory of Electric and Control,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Kohonen network,Elman network and GA algorithm are used to establish the intelligent combined model.The intelligent combined model not only sums up the merit of kinds of single forecasting models,but also changes the interior configuration.So it tallies with the character of electrical load well and improves the precision of load forecasting.At the end of the paper,the forecasting results of three network models are compared,which shows that the intelligent combined forecasting model is very effective and has a good prospect. |
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| Keywords: | intelligent combination short-term load Forecasting elman neural network GA |
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