河南省碳达峰与碳中和战略、技术路线和行动方案

河南省是中国重要的人口、农业、工业及能源消费大省，碳中和战略的实施对推动区域经济绿色低碳高质量发展、促进中国2060年碳中和愿景的实现具有重要意义。但长久以来煤炭主导的较单一能源结构导致河南省面临碳排放基数大、生态治理形势严峻、能源对外依存度持续增长、可再生能源开发程度低等关键问题。为此，详细梳理了河南省当前的能源供需结构、二氧化碳排放与林业碳汇情况，归纳出河南省碳中和目标导向下的七大行动方案，进而分析和预测能源发展多情景构想下的重点行业碳排放以及河南省碳中和的实现路径。研究结果表明：①河南省碳中和战略的实施主要受制于煤炭丰富但油气缺乏的资源禀赋、高耗能和第二产业占比过大等因素；②需同时从能源革命和经济结构深化调整两个方面着力，一方面侧重煤炭的减量替代和清洁化利用，发展风、光、生物质能等新能源和储能技术，优化森林结构以提升林业碳汇功能，另一方面引入高技术含量和高附加值的新兴产业，适当迁出部分金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品等传统高耗能高排放行业，提升工业和居民生活用能终端电气化水平；③按照既定政策（保守情景）、能源转型（参考情景）、激进取代（极端情景）3种情景预测河南省分别在2077、2056、2050年左右实现碳中和；④中国碳中和愿景的全面实现应鼓励重点省份、行业先行开展改革试点和探索创新，突出地方优势，形成各具特色的地方低碳发展模式。

Strategy, Technical Route and Action Plan Towards Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in Henan Province

Henan Province is a major province of population, agriculture, industry and energy consumption in China, and its implementation of carbon neutrality strategy is of great significance for promoting green, low-carbon and high-quality development of regional economy and facilitating the realization of China''s carbon-neutrality vision in 2060. But for a long time, the single energy structure dominated by coal has led to several key issues in Henan Province such as a large carbon emission baselevel, a tough situation of ecological management, continuously increasing external energy dependence and the poor development degree of renewable energy. Hence, the present energy supply and demand structure, carbon dioxide emission and forest carbon sink in Henan Province were firstly analyzed in detail and seven major action plans were then proposed under the direction of carbon neutrality. Further analyses and forecasts of carbon emission from key industries and realization paths of carbon neutrality in Henan Province were conducted under multi-scenario conceptions for energy development. And the following research results were obtained. (1) The implementation of carbon neutrality strategy in Henan Province is mainly constrained by the resource endowment that is rich in coal but lacking in oil and gas, and relatively high proportions of energy-intensive enterprises and the secondary industry. (2) Both energy revolution and economic restructuring should be emphasized. On the one hand, it is essential to vigorously promote the reduction, substitution and clean utilization of coal, development of new energy resources including wind, solar and biomass energy, energy storage techniques, and enhancement of forest carbon sink by optimizing the forest structure. On the other hand, new industries with high-tech and high-value should be introduced, accompanied with appropriate evacuation of some traditional industries with high energy consumption and high emission such as metal smelting and nonmetal mineral products so as to improve the electrification level of industrial and residential energy terminals. (3) Based on multi-scenario conceptions for energy development, namely the established policy (conservative scenario), energy transition (reference scenario) and radical replacement (extreme scenario), it is predicted that Henan Province will achieve carbon neutrality around 2077, 2056 and 2050, respectively. (4) To fully realize China''s carbon-neutrality vision, key provinces and industries should be encouraged to carry out pilot reforms, explore and innovate, highlight local strengths, and form localized low-carbon development models with their unique characteristics.