区域水资源短缺风险调控研究

本文以京津地区为例，在水资源系统风险分析和评价的基础上探讨采取各种风险调控的技术手段对水资源系统风险性能指标的影响，重点从需水管理和供水管理两方面研究水资源短缺风险管理措施对降低区域水资源短缺风险的贡献。研究结果表明，不同的水资源管理措施对于区域水资源短缺风险具有不同程度的调控作用，而要彻底解决京津地区的水资源短缺风险，南水北调具有不可替代的作用。

Study on risk control of regional water resources shortage

As an example, the risk control of the Beijing-Tianjin Area water resources shortage was re- searched. The effect of varies risk control measures on risk capability indexes of water resources system was discussed based on water resources system risk analysis and evaluation. The contribute rate of varies measures including water demand management and water supply management was illuminated in order to reduce water shortage. The results show that different water management measures for regional water shortage risk with varying degrees of regulation; the south-to-north water diversion project plays an irreplaceable role on solution of water shortage risks in Beijing-Tianjin Area.