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组合预测方法在公路运输量预测中的应用研究
引用本文:王俊波.组合预测方法在公路运输量预测中的应用研究[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报,2011(6):95-99.
作者姓名:王俊波
作者单位:交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029
摘    要:以吉林省公路货运量预测为例,在现有文献研究的基础上,引入了基于广义逆矩阵的变权组合预测模型,在经过理论验证的基础上,通过运用补充新息、二次循环迭代等方法克服了原有方法在实际预测出现的数据失真现象,开展了中长远期预测,并对比各特征年的实际发生数据,重新进行了检验.

关 键 词:组合预测  公路运输  货运量

Application of Combination Forecast Method in Highway Traffic Volume Forecast
WANG Jun-bo.Application of Combination Forecast Method in Highway Traffic Volume Forecast[J].Journal of Qingdao Institute of Architecture and Engineering,2011(6):95-99.
Authors:WANG Jun-bo
Affiliation:WANG Jun-bo (China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)
Abstract:Taking the highway freight volume forecasting of Jilin Province as an example, the article introduces a combiriation forecast model by variable weights based on the generalized inverse matrix, in combination with the existing literature research, which is used to forecast highway freight. In light of theory, the data distortion in the actual prediction of the original method was corrected by means of the application of new interest and secondary circulating iteration. The medium and long predictions were carried out and checked again by contrasting the actual data of every characteristic year.
Keywords:combination forecast highway transport freight volume
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