断层总面积理论在中强地震预测中的应用

用断层总面积理论对华北地区16例中强地震进行了研究,发现有15例在震前2a左右断层总面积有明显的高值A(t)≥30]异常显示.对断层总面积值随时间变化特征的分析表明,断层总面积值对华北地区5.5级以上地震有较好的中短期预测效果.将此方法应用于地震趋势预测中,认为2005年度冀鲁豫交界区存在发生5级以上地震的可能.

Theory of Fault Total Area Applied to Predict Medium and Strong Earthquakes

After researches have been done on 16 medium and strong-size earthquakes in North China using the theory of fault total area, it turns out that there are 15 cases in which value of fault total area is obviously high A(t)≥30] about two years before earthquake. By analyzing the feature of value of fault total area with time variation, it shows that value of fault total area has a better medium and short term prediction on more than 5.5 on the Richter scale in North China The method is applied to earthquake trend prediction . It is possible that there will be an earthquake more than 5.0 on the Richter Scale between Hebei , Shandong and Henan provinces.