基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估

罐区储罐相对集中，发生事故后容易产生连锁效应，引发灾害性后果。本文根据储罐事故的发生发展规律，将事件链效应引入罐区定量风险评估中，建立了基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估方法。该方法以罐区中实际可能发生的事故场景作为风险计算依据，定量计算了罐区个人风险和社会风险。同时，利用个人风险判定准则，对事故场景数目进行了有效的筛选，避免冗长、复杂的计算。最后，以某罐区雷击事件链为例，探讨了事件链效应对罐区风险结果的影响。得出：在考虑事件链的条件下，罐区风险明显增加，需要规划改善的区域相应扩大。因此，对于大型罐区风险评估与规划，考虑事件链效应是十分必要的。

Quantitative risk assessment in storage tank areas based on event-chains

Large storage tank areas are easily involved into severe accidents because of event-chains. According to the accidental escalation's law of tank accidents, the quantitative risk assessment method based on event-chains is developed. In the method, the individual risk (IR) and societal risk (SR) are calculated based on the practical accident scenarios that may occur because of event-chains. Moreover, the principals of individual risk are introduced to determine the effective scenarios, and thus many practical scenarios will be cut down. In the paper, the lightning event chain of tank areas is taken as an example. From the result, it can conclude that some common scenarios that have obvious effects are neglected and the calculated results are conservative by using the traditional method. Moreover, the planning areas enlarge obviously as the event chains are considered. Therefore, it is essential to consider the event chain especially for big tank areas.