| 改进的时间序列模型在非汛期水沙预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨弘,练继建.改进的时间序列模型在非汛期水沙预报中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2004,35(8):5-7. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨弘 练继建 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 天津大学,建筑工程学院,天津,300072 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 从ARMA模型出发，对传统的误差实时修正方法进行改进，用服从正态分布的纯随机序列代替，延长了时间序列预测时域．用这两种方法对黄河潼关水文站水沙序列进行了预测，经计算表明，改进的时间序列方法有效地提高了预测精度。
|
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 流量 输沙率 非汛期 水沙预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2004)08-0005-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月29日 |
Application of an improved time serie smodel to flow and sediment forecasting in a non-flood period |
| |
| YANG Hong,LIAN Ji-jian.Application of an improved time serie smodel to flow and sediment forecasting in a non-flood period[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2004,35(8):5-7. |
| |
| Authors: | YANG Hong LIAN Ji-jian |
| |
| Abstract: | The improvement of the conventional method of error real-time correction based on ARMA model and the prolongation of the forecasting range of time series using normal distribution instate of purely random series are presented in this article. These two methods were used at Tongguan hydrometric station to test flow and sediment forecasting and the results computed have shown efficiently improved accuracy of prediction. |
| |
| Keywords: | time series model flow rate of sediment transport non-flood period flow and sediment forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
