气候变化下奎屯河流域径流特征分析

近年来,人类经济活动加快以及气候的变化,导致径流特征发生一定的变化,这为径流预报、水资源的合理规划及利用增加了难度。目前,随着气候的变化,奎屯河流域的径流特征也发生了极大的变化。根据1972—2017年奎屯河流域月径流量以及气温、降水实测数据,通过基本统计方法、累计距平法、MK检验等方法,分析了奎屯河流域两条主要河流在气候变化影响下的年内变化、年际变化和周期变化趋势等特性。结果表明:奎屯河与古尔图河年径流序列分布规律较为相似,主要体现在年径流分布较为集中,离散程度小,分布呈正偏,极值数据集中度较好;奎屯河、古尔图河,相对变化幅度均呈现减小的趋势且河流年内分配逐渐趋向均匀,其中奎屯河径流量46 a间平均上升速率为0.38×10~8m~3/10 a;古尔图河平均上升速率为0.214×10~8m~3/10 a;奎屯河、古尔图河年径流序列演化过程分别存在着4～8 a、10～15 a、20～25 a以及5～15 a、20～30 a尺度的周期变化规律,第1主周期分别为23 a和22 a;奎屯河径流量与气温Pearson相关性系数为0.703~(**),呈极显著相关的关系;古尔图河径流量与气温、降水Pearson相关性系数分别为0.698~(**)、0.225~(**),呈极显著相关的关系。

Analysis of runoff characteristics in Kuitun Ｒiver Basin under climate change

In recent years，the runoff characteristics have been apparently changed because of the acceleration of human economic activities and the change of climate，which increases more difficult for runoff prediction and rational planning and utilization of water resources． At present，the massive changes of the runoff characteristics of Kuitun Ｒiver Basin have occurred rapidly under the condition of climate change． According to the monthly runoff and the measured data of the monthly runoff and the temperature and the precipitation of the Kuitun Ｒiver from 1972 to 2017，the annual change of the two main rivers in the Kuitun Ｒiver basin under the influence of climate change，the inter-annual variation and the change trend of the period are analyzed by the basic statistical methods，the accumulated distance method and the MK test． Multiple results indicate that the distribution of annual runoff series of Kuitun Ｒiver is similar to that of Gultu Ｒiver． The distribution of annual runoff is concentrated，the degree of dispersion is small，the distribution is positive，and the concentration of extreme value data is better． The relative variation ranges of Kuitun Ｒiver and Gultu Ｒiver illustrate a decreasing trend and the distribution of the river gradually tends to be uniform during the year． The average rising rate of the Kuitun Ｒiver runoff is 0. 38×108 m3 /10 a during the 46 a，and the average rising rate of the Gultu Ｒiver is 0. 214 × 108 m3 /10 a． The evolution process of annual runoff series of Kuitun Ｒiver has periodic variation regularity of 4 ～ 8 a，10 ～ 15 a and 20 ～ 25 a，and the first main period is 23 a． While that of Gultu Ｒiver has periodic variation regularity of 5 ～ 15 a and 20 ～ 30 a，and the first main period is 22 a． The Pearson correlation coefficient between the runoff of Kuitun Ｒiver and air temperature is 0. 703＊＊，which shows a very significant correlation． The Pearson correlation coefficients of Gultu Ｒiver runoff with air temperature and precipitation are 0. 698＊＊ and 0. 225＊＊ respectively，indicating a very significant correlation．