协整和集对分析法在降雨资料短缺地区的插补移用

针对中小流域降雨资料短缺，洪水精确预报难度大的问题，提出利用线性协整和集对分析（SPA）方法分别对台风雨和非台风雨下的观测降雨数据进行插补移用，以驼英水库为例，进行洪水预报研究。研究得出:（1）基于台风雨协整计算结果发现雨量站之间存在协整关系，协整模拟结果与实测降雨的纳什系数均在0.85以上，相关系数达到0.90，主雨峰和场次降雨误差均较小，说明协整理论可用于降雨资料短缺时的数据插补；（2）非台风雨降雨序列经补充集合经验模态分解（CEEMD）和集对分析（SPA），根据综合联系度拟定数据移用最优方案，显著提高了降雨数据移用的有效性及准确性，提高了洪水预报精度。该方法可为其他同时存在台风雨和非台风雨地区降雨资料的插补移用提供新思路。

Research on interpolation and transfer of cointegration and set pair analysis in rainfall data shortage areas

In view of the shortage of rainfall data in small and medium watersheds and the difficulty of accurate flood forecasting, we proposed to use linear cointegration and set pair analysis (SPA) to interpolate and transfer the observational rainfall data under typhoon rain and non-typhoon rain, and carried out the research on flood forecasting of Tuo Ying Reservoir. The results show that: (1) Based on the typhoon rain cointegration calculation results, it is found that there is a cointegration relationship between rainfall stations. The Nash coefficients of the cointegration simulation results and the measured rainfall are both above 0.85, and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.90. The main rain peak and the raining error are small. The calculation results are good and the integration theory can be used for data interpolation when short of rainfall data. (2) The non-typhoon rain rainfall sequence is decomposed by supplementary ensemble empirical mode (CEEMD) and SPA, and the optimal plan for data migration is drawn up according to the comprehensive connection degree, which significantly improves the effectiveness and accuracy of the migration of rainfall data, and improves flood forecasting accuracy. The method proposed in this paper provides a new idea for the interpolation and transfer of rainfall data in other regions with both typhoon storm and non-typhoon storm.