区域水安全系统评价新方法探析

基于可持续发展理论的压力-状态-响应概念框架,探讨了区域水安全评价指标体系的建立,并改进已有的遗传投影寻踪评价方法,构造了基于多目标决策理想点法(TOPSIS)的相对贴近度概念的投影目标函数,利用蒙特卡罗方法产生的大样本数据,建立了一种适合于区域水安全系统评价的新方法(模型)——遗传投影寻踪-理想点插值模型(GPP-IPIM),并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全系统评价,评价结果具有直观性、合理性和通用性。对评价结果基于不确定性分析的敏感性进行分析,结果表明GPP-IPIM是一种稳定、有效的区域水安全系统评价方法,并可应用于各种水资源系统评价问题。

A new method for regional water security system assessment

Based on the pressure-state-response(PSR) framework,the establishment of a regional water security assessment index system was discussed and the existing genetic projection pursuit method was modified.Furthermore, the projection objective function reflecting the relative closeness to the ideal points of the TOPSIS method was established.Thus,a new comprehensive assessment method for regional water security—the genetic projection pursuit ideal point interpolation model(GPP-IPIM) was set up and applied to water security assessment of a downstream section of the Beijiang River and its delta region in Guangdong Province.The assessment results demonstrate that the model is intuitive and rational.The sensitivity study of the evaluation results based on uncertainty analysis shows that GPP-IPIM is a steady and effective regional water security assessment method,and it can be widely used for water resources system assessment.