流域径流变化驱动力分析与研究——以祖厉河为例

根据祖厉河流域水文站实测资料序列,对流域径流变化影响因子进行分析表明:21世纪初年代径流量平均值与20世纪70年代相比较减少了42.2%,气候变化和人类活动是影响河川径流的主要因素。自20世纪70年代以来,伴随着流域气温的不断升高,流域水文循环条件的改变,年径流量呈现逐年递减趋势,相关分析表明两者之间呈显著负相关关系。同时,流域水利水保工程和跨流域引水提灌工程也是改变流域径流的主要因素,其对径流量的变化影响占到70%以上。

Analysis and study on the driving force of runoff change-taking Zuli River basin as a example

According to the measured data sequence in the hydrologic station of Zuli River basin, the influencing factors of runoff change are analyzed. The analysis shows that average runoff in the early 21st century decrease by 42.2% compared to the 1970s, and the main influencing factors are climatic change and human activity. From the 1970s, the annual runoff had a decreasing tendency, with the change of hydrologic cycle condition for the rising temperature. The correlation analysis indicates inverse correlation relation between the runoff and temperature. While the water conservation engineering and cross-basin water diversion project are also the main factors of the basin runoff change, which account for more than 70%.