| 区域回归法对无资料地区设计洪水的估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 周芬,郭生练,方彬,柴晓玲.区域回归法对无资料地区设计洪水的估算[J].水力发电,2004,30(7):10-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周芬 郭生练 方彬 柴晓玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北,武汉,430072;中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东,广州,510610
2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部重大科研项目(水库设计与运用专题研究) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用区域回归法估算无资料地区的设计洪水，首先采用模糊聚类分析确定水文子区域．且基于线性矩法审查子区域的一致性和均匀性；建立洪峰流量与流域特征变量的区域回归方程，采用普通最小二乘回归确定对洪峰流量影响显著的流域特征变量，同时采用加权最小二乘回归确定回归方程的系数。采用该方法建立了一个水文子区域估算洪峰流量的区域回归方程，对区域回归法和基于指标洪水的区域频率分析的结果进行比较。
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| 关 键 词： | 设计洪水 区域回归分析 线性矩法 模糊聚类 加权最小二乘回归 无资料地区 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9342(2004)07-0010-04 |
Design flood estimation for ungauged basins by using regional regression analysis |
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| Zhou Fen,Guo Sheng-lian,Fang Bin,Chai Xiao-ling.Design flood estimation for ungauged basins by using regional regression analysis[J].Water Power,2004,30(7):10-13. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Fen Guo Sheng-lian Fang Bin Chai Xiao-ling |
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| Abstract: | The regional regression method was used to estimate the design flood o f ungauged basins. Firstly, fuzzy clustering was applied in identifying sub-regi ons and two statistics based on L-moment ratios were used to test the discordanc e and heterogeneity of the studied sub-regions. Secondly, the regional regressio n equation related to peak flow and basin characteristics was established. The o rdinary least square and weighted least square were used to determine the signif icant basin characteristics for peak flow and the coefficients of the equations respectively. Lastly, the regression equations for selected recurrence intervals for a sub-region were established, and the results of regional regression were compared with that of regional frequency analysis based on index flood. |
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| Keywords: | design flood regional regression analysis L-moment fuzzy clusterin g weighted least square ungauged region |
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