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| 水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望 | |
| 引用本文： | 尹雄锐,夏军,张翔,王晓妮.水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望[J].水力发电,2006,32(10):27-31. |
| 作者姓名： | 尹雄锐 夏军 张翔 王晓妮 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉大学,湖北,武汉,430072 2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉大学,湖北,武汉,430072 3. 水利部松辽水利委员会,吉林,长春,130021 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目 |
| 摘 要： | 水文模型是水循环研究、水环境保护、水资源管理等的基本工具,在过去几十年里水文模型一直是水文工作者研究的重点,而水文模型的可靠性和不确定性分析却显得不足和滞后。随着水文模型越来越复杂,在现有数据水平相对缺乏的条件下,水文模拟与预测中的不确定性日益突出。对此分析了与水文模型紧密相关的不确定性的来源,回顾了考虑不确定性的水文模拟和预测主要分析方法,并提出了未来水文模拟与预测的不确定性研究的主要内容和需要注意的问题。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水文模型 水文模拟与预测 不确定性 不确定性分析 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9342（2006）10-0027-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-21 |
Recent Progress and Prospect of the Study on Uncertainties in Hydrological Modelling and Forecasting |
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| Yin Xiongrui,Xia Jun,Zhang Xiang,Wang Xiaoni.Recent Progress and Prospect of the Study on Uncertainties in Hydrological Modelling and Forecasting[J].Water Power,2006,32(10):27-31. | |
| Authors: | Yin Xiongrui Xia Jun Zhang Xiang Wang Xiaoni |
| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Recourse and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Hubei 430072; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101 ;3. Songliao Rivers Conservancy of Ministry of Water, Jilin Changchun 130021 |
| Abstract: | Hydrological models play a vital pole in water cycle research,environmental protection and water resources management.In the past decades,hydrological models have received a great deal of attention by researchers,however the analysis of their reliability and uncertainty has not been treated well.With more and more complex of hydrological models and comparative shortage of existing data,the uncertainties of hydrological modeling and forecasting are increasing.For this reason,this paper discusses the uncertainty sources closely related to hydrological models and reviews the methods of hydrological modelling and prediction in the uncertainty frame.Finally it puts forward the main contents and some problems on future uncertainties study in hydrological modelling and forecasting. |
| Keywords: | hydrological model hydrological modelling and forecasting uncertainty uncertainty analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
