水库汛限水位确定方法评述与展望

回顾国内外水库防洪调度的发展概况，分析并将国内水库汛期防洪限制水位确定方法划分为汛限水位静态控制和动态控制两类。前者包括固定汛限水位法及三种分期汛限水位法；后者按照所采用的信息类别及利用的理论，划分为综合信息推理法、水文信息统计法及水库调度模型法。针对各方法给出研究及运用中的实例并做出简要分析，指出在运用中的特点。从系统的角度分析影响汛限水位确定的因素，并给出了展望。

Review and perspective of reservoir flood limit level determination methods

The flood control and reservoir flood limit level determination methods both in China and abroad were reviewed and discussed in this paper. The ways to determine the reservoir flood limit level can be classified to two categories, i.e., static control method and dynamic control method. The former includes the fixed water stage method and three different seasonal division methods; the latter can be classified to the method based on comprehensive inference theory,the method based on statistics of hydrological information and the method based on mathematical model for reservoir flood control. By analysis of these methods in brief, their characteristics are pointed out and some advises are given for practice. The key factors affecting the determination of flood limit level are analyzed from a systemic point and the final conclusions and evaluations are given.