| 灰色季节性指数模型与神经网络模型在蒸发预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘旭,刘廷玺,张春媛,苏伟义.灰色季节性指数模型与神经网络模型在蒸发预测中的应用[J].水利科技与经济,2010,16(8):876-879. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘旭 刘廷玺 张春媛 苏伟义 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古农业大学,水利与土木建筑工程学院,呼和浩特,010018
2. 内蒙古水利水电勘测设计院,勘察处,呼和浩特010020 |
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| 摘 要： | 在原GM(1,l)模型基础上采用滑动平均法进行季节因素修正,建立了灰色季节性指数模型,并将该模型与神经网络模型运用在海拉尔市季蒸发量预测中。计算结果表明,修正后的模型与神经网络模型在拟合既含趋势变动,又含季节因素的时间序列预测中,比普通GM(1,1)模型具有更好的适应性,具有较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 季节指数 GM（1 1）模型 时间序列 神经网络 蒸发量 |
Application of the Grey Seasonal Exponential Model and BP Mode in Predicting Evaporation |
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| LIU Xu,LIU Ting-xi,ZHANG Chun-yuan,SU Wei-yi.Application of the Grey Seasonal Exponential Model and BP Mode in Predicting Evaporation[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2010,16(8):876-879. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xu LIU Ting-xi ZHANG Chun-yuan SU Wei-yi |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Water Resources and Civil Engineering College,Hohhot 010018,China;2.Inner Mongolia Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute,Hohhot 010020,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the GM（1,1） models,using the seasonal exponential model to improve it,the grey seasonal exponential model has been set up.This mode and Bp mode were applied to predict the seasonal evaporation in the hailaer city.The tested results have shown that the easonal exponential model and Bp mode have better forecast accuracy than GM（1,1）model,when the observed value have great fluctuation. |
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| Keywords: | seasonal exponential GM（1 1）model time sequence BP evaporation |
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