面向对象的三峡库区新生型滑坡空间预测研究

 三峡水库运行期间，库水位的变动不仅可能诱发老滑坡复活，还会产生新的滑坡（新生型滑坡）。以库首区秭归段岸坡为研究区，采用了面向对象的C5.0决策树分类的预测方法，选取了库水、坡度、工程岩组、斜坡结构和影像纹理等作为评价因子，在遥感解译和野外调查的基础上，利用遥感、地理信息系统和空间数据挖掘技术，建立了新生型滑坡空间预测模型，生成了新生型滑坡易发性区划图。验证显示：预测结果与实际较为一致，该方法可为新生型滑坡的防治提供科学依据。

Object-Oriented Spatial Prediction for Neogenic Landside in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

During the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the reservoir water level fluctuation could induce old landslide revivification and trigger new landslides (neogenic landslides). The aim of this study is to provide basis for the prevention and treatment of these neogenic landslides. A prediction method with object-oriented C5.0 decision tree model was presented. Evaluation factors were selected, including reservoir water fluctuation, slope gradient, engineering rock group, slope structure and image texture. On the basis of RS interpretation, field investigation, and with RS, GIS and spatial data mining technology, the spatial prediction model for neogenic landslide was built, and the susceptibility map was obtained. The bank slope of Zigui segment in the reservoir area was taken as a case study. Verification shows that the prediction results are consistent with the actual situation. 