改进灰色模型在水量预测中的应用

灰色模型对生活用水量进行预测本身具有一定的局限,数据离散程度越大,灰度也愈大,其预测精度也越差.文中采用滑动平均法对灰色预测的原始数据进行了改进,并采取残差修正,避免了数值过度波动.通过预测实例,结果表明改进后的灰色预测模型能有效提高预测精度.

Application of improved grey model in the water demand prediction

Grey model has limitation to predict domestic consumption. The greater separate degree of the data, the larger the grey degree, then prediction accuracy is worse. The paper adopts the sliding average method to improve the predicted original data and residual modification to avoid the large numerical fluctuation. The results show that the improved grey model could improve prediction accuracy by the example.