南水北调东线源头潮汐预报模型研究

为了对南水北调东线源头感潮河段潮位进行准确预报,选取调和分析法,根据研究区域区间泄流和季风影响具有连续性的特性,以连续3 d潮位受区间汇流和气象因素的影响大致相同为假设基础,加入上游长江径流量、风力风向和区间来水为主要输入的实时校正量,建立南水北调东线源头潮汐预报实时校正模型。结果表明:潮时预报和潮位预报均达到甲级精度。该方法也适用于其他感潮河段潮位的预报。

Research on tidal forecasting model for source of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

To provide timely technical support for flood control and drought relief command of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion, considering the influence continuity of the flow and seasonal wind in the research area, we establish a tide forecasting model for the source area of the Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion by tidal harmonic analysis method. In the model, the upstream flow, wind force and direction and interval discharge are considered as the main real-time correction factors, and an assumption of interval confluence and meteorological factors exerting the same impact magnitudes on the tidal level of continuous 3d duration is adopted. The result shows that the both tidal time and tidal level forecasts are of grade A accuracy. This method is also suitable for tidal level forecast in other tidal sections.