| 水利工程施工进度风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶永巧,印凡成.水利工程施工进度风险分析[J].广东水利水电,2014(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶永巧 印凡成 |
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| 作者单位： | 珠海市城乡防洪设施管理和技术审查中心,广东珠海,519003,河海大学理学院,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过绘制网络图表示工序之间的逻辑关系，引进表示工序持续时间的2种新的分布函数，分析得到各自合理的抽样分布，运用MC仿真模拟的一般步骤，通过实例分析，表明持续时间服从t分布所得的施工进度风险较大。
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| 关 键 词： | 施工进度 风险分析 MC仿真 PERT |
Risk Analysis of Construction Progress in Hydraulic Engineering Construction |
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| YE Yongqiao and YIN Fancheng.Risk Analysis of Construction Progress in Hydraulic Engineering Construction[J].Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower,2014(8). |
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| Authors: | YE Yongqiao and YIN Fancheng |
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| Affiliation: | Zhuhai Urban Flood Control Facilities Management and Technical Review Center , Zhuhai 519003 , China and College of Science , Hohai University , Nanjing 210098 , China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper , the PERT network chart is drawn to represent the logical relationship , and two new distribution functions is introduced to represent the durations among the processes .And the reasonable Sampling Distribution of the distribution functions is made to apply the general steps of MC simulations .By instance analysis , it is shown that the durations which generalized Fisher z distribution has more risky construction progress . |
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