水资源风险分析理论及评估方法

通过分析开展水资源风险研究的重要意义,全面总结了水资源风险理论和评估方法。(1)从不确定性角度论述水资源风险定义;(2)从风险源和承险体角度分析水资源风险的形成要素,系统总结危险性和脆弱性的定义和数学模型;(3)论述了水资源风险理论模型,包括传统模型、积分模型和投入产出模型等;(4)系统论述了水资源脆弱性评估、水资源风险概率预测和水资源风险损失评估的模型和方法,讨论了各种模型的优缺点;(5)指出了影响水资源风险评估建模的重点与难点问题。

Theory and assessment method of water resources risk

Significant meanings of researches on water resources risk are analyzed, and theories and meth-ods of water resources risk are summarized comprehensively. First, definitions of water resources risk are discussed in terms of uncertainty. Second, the forming factors of water resources risk are analyzed from the viewpoint of hazard and system, and definitions and models of threat and vulnerability are summarized. Third, theory models of water resources risk are summarized, such as some traditional models, integral models and the input-output model. Fourth, models and techniques of water resources vulnerability assess-ment, risk probability prediction and risk loss assessment, advantages and disadvantages of these models are discussed. Finally,the crucial and difficult problems which affect assessment modeling for water resourc-es risk.