流域水资源供需双侧调控模型及应用

针对水资源常规配置中供需分离、配置与调度结合不紧密,难以支撑流域水资源严格管理的问题,提出流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。在需水侧,通过建立供水量和效益函数关系,并考虑水土资源等约束条件,构建农业种植结构与灌溉制度优化模型;在供水侧,采用模拟与优化、配置与调度相结合的两阶段建模路径,构建多水源配置与水库群优化调度模型;通过来源于需水侧模型的"需水过程"与来源于供水侧模型的"可供水过程"的分解与耦合,实现供需双侧的联合调控,综合集成构建流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。将该模型应用于南四湖流域,提出了南四湖上级湖、下级湖等大型湖库工程的优化调度图与不同年型下农业种植结构和水资源配置方案,验证了模型的有效性。通过供需双侧协调优化,南四湖流域供需缺口缩小,农业种植效益增加,枯水年水分生产效益提高了0.70元/m~3、平水年水分生产效益提高了0.63元/m~3;生活和工业供水保证率稳定在95%,生态和农业供水保证率明显提升,分别由53%提高到71%、由67%提高到75%。

Modeling of bilateral joint regulation of basin-wide water resources supply and demand

A model of bilateral joint regulation of basin-wide water resource supply and demand is put forward focusing in the problems of separated water demand and supply,and weak bond of allocation and regulation in conventional water resource allocation, which barely supports the strict basin water resource management. In terms of water demand, an optimal model of crop pattern and irrigation is established based on a function of water and benefits considering constraints of water and land resources. In terms of water supply, a two-stage allocation-regulation-combined and simulation-optimization-based modeling approach is used to develop the multi-water-resource allocation and reservoir operation model. The water demand derived from the former optimal model and the water supply derived from the latter model are coupled and decomposed to establish the integrated model and implement the joint control of water demand and supply. The integrated model is applied in the Nansi Lake Basin and the optimal water allocation scheme,crop patterns and operation rules of upper and lower Lakes are obtained based on the model,which reveals the reasonability of the model. The results under the dry condition and normal condition show that the water production efficiency of irrigation water increased 0.70 yuan/m³ and 0.63 yuan/m³ respectively; the guarantee rate of domestic and industrial water supply remained at 95%, and the rate of ecological and agricultural water supply increased from 53% to 71% and 67% to 75% respectively.