水库滑坡位移与水动力耦合预测参数及其评价方法研究

针对库水涨落诱发滑坡致灾机理,在系统分析水库边坡位移与库水位变化规律及其相互作用关系的基础上,运用弹塑性力学基本原理,提出了以库水位下降引起的边坡下滑动力增量作为边坡的加载动力参数,以相应边坡位移变化量作为边坡位移响应参数,以此确定水库边坡库水动力增载位移响应比参数并建立预测模型。运用动力增载位移响应比预测模型对三峡库区典型水库滑坡-黄土坡滑坡关键部位监测点进行了动力增载位移响应比计算,并采用Geostudio软件对该滑坡稳定性进行了数值模拟分析。该滑坡的位移响应特征与稳定性演化规律表明,该滑坡关键变形部位的动力增载位移响应比参数变化规律与其实际位移与稳定性演化规律基本吻合。研究结果表明了动力增载位移响应比参数是水库滑坡有效的位移动力评价参数,可运用该参数及其评价方法对水库滑坡进行稳定性分析与评价。

Research on the prediction parameter and evaluation method of displacement coupled with water dynamics of the reservoir landslides

On the basis of systematic analysis of the change rule of displacement and reservoir water level and the relation of their interaction, this paper proposes to take the reservoir water level variation as the loading dynamic parameter of landslides and to take its displacement as the response parameter, so as to determine the displacement response ratio parameter of dynamics increment and establish its prediction mod-el by means of elastic-plastic theory and damage mechanics. Finally, taking the typical reservoir landslide of the Three Gorges Reservoir region-Huangtupo landslide as the example,this paper completes the calcu-lation of displacement response ratio of dynamics increment of G02 and G07 monitoring points of Huangtu-po landslide by using the displacement response ratio of dynamics increment prediction model. Meanwhile, the stability of the landslide is simulated and analyzed by using the Geostudio software. The characteristics of the displacement response and the evolution law of the slope stability show that the curves of displace-ment response ratio of dynamics increment of monitoring points basically agree with the dynamic evolution law of the slope stability. The research results above indicate that the displacement response ratio of dynam-ics increment is an effective dynamics displacement appraisal parameter of reservoir landslides, so it can be effectively used in the prediction of the reservoir landslides.