| 采空区自燃“三带”的灰色关联分析与预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王蓬,魏引尚,常心坦.采空区自燃“三带”的灰色关联分析与预测研究[J].煤矿安全,2008,39(5):8-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王蓬 魏引尚 常心坦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 铜川矿务局,陈家山煤矿,陕西,耀县,727101
2. 西安科技大学,能源学院,陕西,西安,710054 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用灰色系统理论对于陈家山煤矿416综放工作面采空区自燃"三带"与CO变化、工作面推进度等影响因素进行了分析。通过灰色关联分析发现CO变化与工作面推进距离存在一定相关性,即通过灰色绝对关联度,将工作面推进度与采空区自燃"三带"和煤炭自然发火期关联起来。对于研究得出的工作面推进距离,采用了GM(1,1)以及残差GM(1,1)预测模型,来预测非正规工作条件下采空区自然"三带"位置变化,本文所研究的成果对于指导煤矿现场预防自燃火灾具有重要的指导作用。
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| 关 键 词： | CO 灰色理论 采空区自燃“三带” 绝对灰色关联度 自然发火期 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-496X(2008)05-0008-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年11月23 |
Study on Interrelation and Predicating Tri-zone of Coal Spontaneous Combustion of Goal Based on Grey Theory |
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| WANG Peng,WEI Yin-shang,CHANG Xin-tan.Study on Interrelation and Predicating Tri-zone of Coal Spontaneous Combustion of Goal Based on Grey Theory[J].Safety in Coal Mines,2008,39(5):8-11. |
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| Authors: | WANG Peng WEI Yin-shang CHANG Xin-tan |
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| Abstract: | By using Grey theory,there is an analysis about the tri-zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf,and CO variety and the marching step of work in the 416 work-face of Chen Jiashan Mine was introduced in this paper.Namely,the Grey absolute relation grade,which was confirmed that related to the marching step of work,tri-zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf and Coal Spontaneous Combustion Period.As for the marching distance of working face,a forecast model of GM(1,1) and the residuals GM(1,1) is adopted to predicated the change of tri-zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf under un-normal conditions.The result of the study is very effective for preventing the spontaneous combustion disaster in coal mines. |
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| Keywords: | CO grey theory tri-zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf grey absolute relation grade coal spontaneous combustion period |
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