突发事件应急管理情景分析:宏观审视与微观解构

风险社会背景下，可预见和难以预见的风险因素明显增多，对我国应急管理体系和应急管理能力的现代化提出了更高要求。情景分析是对不确定性的未来进行研究的分析方法和实践工具，与突发事件应急管理中对不确定性因素的分析具有高度契合性。以突发事件应急管理情景分析为研究对象，运用CiteSpace软件绘制知识图谱，宏观审视应急管理情景分析研究的趋势与规律；微观上从理论修正与拓展、流程调整与规范、方法应用与实践三方面解构应急管理情景分析研究的内容与热点。结果表明:突发事件应急管理情景分析尚未形成清晰的研究主线，但具有较大潜力；研究内容呈现出多元化特征，但本土化研究相对较缺乏；当前研究不能满足实践需要，重大突发事件高度复杂性倒逼情景分析研究。

Scenario analysis of emergency management: macroscopic review and microscopic deconstruction

Under the background of risk society, the foreseeable and unforeseeable risk factors significantly increase, which puts forward higher requirements for the modernization of China's emergency management system and capability.Scenario analysis is an analytical method and practical tool to study the uncertain future.Emergency management highly relies on scenario analysis for investigating uncertain factors.Taking the situation analysis of emergency management as the research object, this paper put forward a knowledge graph by CiteSpace to examine the trend and law of the research.Specifically, it probed into the contents and hot spots of micro-deconstruction scenario analysis from theoretical revision and expansion, process adjustment and specification, method application and practice.The research shows that the scenario analysis of emergency management has not formed a clear research paradigm, but it has great potential; the research content is diversified, but the localization research is relatively deficient; Current research can not meet practical needs, and the high complexity of major emergencies invites scenario analysis research.