基于疫情扰动的江苏省经济韧性提升研究

本文运用反现实函数法从抵抗性和恢复性两个维度对江苏省整体经济和三次产业的经济韧性进行测度，并借助地理探测器模型对其影响因素进行探究。得出以下结论，1）从抵抗性维度看，江苏省经济抵抗性高于全国平均水平，在空间上呈现出南北低，中间高的“凸”字型分布格局。产业抵抗性表现为第二产业>第一产业>第三产业，三次产业的经济抵抗性的空间分布格局各异。2）从恢复性维度看，研究期内江苏省经济恢复性始终保持在全国平均水平之上，但呈下降趋势，空间分布上由前期的自南向北的高-低-高-低相间分布式格局转变为后期的南高北低式格局。产业恢复性方面，第一二产业经济恢复性明显提升，而第三产业经济恢复性却显著下降。3）从各影响因素的解释力来看，外贸依存度、复工进度和产业结构对经济抵抗性的解释力较高；产业结构、医疗水平和复工进度对经济恢复性的解释力较高。从韧性与主要影响因素的相关性来看，医疗水平、复工进度和第三产业占GDP比重等因素对区域经济韧性有明显的促进作用，而对外贸依存度、第二产业占GDP比重对区域经济韧性有抑制作用。最后，对江苏省疫后经济恢复和高质量发展提出了具体的对策建议。

IMPROVEMENT OF JIANGSU'S ECONOMIC RESILIENCE UNDER IMPACTS OF COVID-19

This paper uses inverse function method to estimate the resilience of Jiangsu's overall economy and the third industry from resistance and recovery, and employs geographical detector model to study its factors. Jiangsu's economic resistance is outstandingly higher than the nation's average, geographically showing low-in-south/north and high-in-center. Industrial resistance has a decreasing order of the second, the first and the third industries with all three industries distributing variably. Jiangsu's economic recovery is also above the nation's average, but with a decreasing trend, geographically high-low-high-low pattern northward transforming to a later south-high-north-low pattern. Economic recovery of the first and the second industries has improved largely, with the third industry declining outstandingly. Overseas trading dependence, back-to-work progress and industrial structure have a higher explanatory powerto economic resistance, and industrial structure, medical level and back-to-work progress higher to economic recovery. Among resilience-related factors, medical level, back-to-work progress and proportion of the third industry are the major drives for regional economic resilience, but overseas trading dependence and proportion of the second industry are the negative factors. This paper presents suggestions on post-COVID-19 economic recovery and quality development for Jiangsu province.