基于正态云模型的大庆市城镇化脆弱性评价

为了系统掌握大庆市城镇化的脆弱性变化规律，从城镇化脆弱性的内涵和该市实情出发，从扰动强度、敏感程度、适应能力、应对策略4个方面构建评价指标体系，利用正态云模型，对大庆市1995-2015年间的城镇化脆弱性进行测度，得到各年份目标层及准则层的脆弱性等级。结果表明：1）大庆市城镇化系统状况不断改善，城镇化整体脆弱性由高度脆弱下降为中等脆弱，4个准则层的脆弱性等级也有不同程度的下降，城镇化脆弱性明显减小。2）扰动强度与敏感程度的脆弱性有较大幅度下降，但前者稳步下降，后者2008年以来波动性明显。3）适应能力提高缓慢，脆弱性等级仅由较高脆弱降低为中度脆弱，是制约大庆市城镇化发展的首要因素。经济转型带来了应对能力的提高，但基础不稳固，且2009年以来波动明显。4）大庆市城镇化仍具有较高的脆弱性，亟需提高城镇化的适应能力与应对策略。 

VULNERABILITY EVALUATION OF DAQING'S URBANIZATION BASED ON NORMAL CLOUD MODEL

To understand the vulnerability of Daqing's urbanization, this paper, based on its connotation of vulnerability and Daqing's situation, established an evaluation index system from destabilization intensity, sensitivity, adaptability and measures, uses normal cloud evaluation model to measure the vulnerability of Daqing's urbanization during 1995-2015 with results showing an improving urbanization, the overall vulnerability declines to medium from high. Four standard levels also fall in vulnerability class. Destabilization intensity vulnerability declines steadily and sensitivity vulnerability also declines but fluctuates since 2008. Adaptability increases slowly with its vulnerability descends to medium from relatively high, a principal factor in limiting Daqing's urbanization development. Economic transformation brings boosts adaptability, but its basis needs to be stabilized, fluctuating since 2009. In general, Daqing's urbanization is of relatively high vulnerability, which demands a higher adaptability and measures. 