科研投入抑制碳排放了吗？——基于LMDI模型和STIRPAT模型的碳排放影响因素分析

节能减排是全球共同关注的重要问题，近年来中国不断加大科研投入、改善能源结构、实现产业结构升级以减少碳排放。虽然中国高污染产业的科研经费支出较高，但是对于抑制二氧化碳排放进而改善工业整体环境效应的方向和力度仍缺乏具体的衡量指标。为进一步分析科研投入对碳排放的作用效果，本文首先将科研规模效应引入分析碳排放影响因素的LMDI模型，从经济规模、科研规模、能源结构及能源强度的分解结果进行讨论；同时为了弥补LMDI模型在弹性分析方面的不足，引入扩展的STIRPAT模型，采用总体能源强度指标和科研投入效率因素，结合省际面板数据进行进一步比较分析。研究结果表明：1）科研投入的增加对碳排放无显著抑制效果，但科研效率的提高以及产业结构升级有助于减少碳排放；2）能源结构和能源强度与碳排放量显著负相关；3）新旧动能转换重大工程的提出和实施对碳减排有明显的促进作用。最后结合模型结果提出增强科研投入针对性，提高科研投入效率；出台节能减排政策，鼓励技术创新；推进新旧动能转换，实现产业结构优化升级等政策启示。

DO RESEARCH INPUTS CONSTRAIN CARBON EMISSION FROM CARBON EMISSION FACTORS BASED ON LMDI MODELAND STIRPAT MODEL?

Saving energy and reducing emission is a global topic. China has reduced carbon emission through boosting research inputs, improving energy structure and reaching industrial upgrade. Although China's high pollution industries have spent lots on research, direction and intensity of improving the overall industrial environmental effect from limiting carbon dioxide emission still lacks of concrete indicators. This paper, aiming at effect of research inputs on carbon emission, decomposes LMDI model which has been incorporated with research size effect as a factor of carbon emission, and discusses the decomposition from economic size, research size, energy structure and intensity. STIRPAT model, in order to compensate the LMDI model in flexibility, is used to further study the topic by using overall energy intensity index and research input efficiency, combined with provincial panel data. Increment of research input has little constraints on carbon emission, but improvement of research efficiency and industrial structural upgrade do. Energy structure and energy intensity are outstandingly negatively related to carbon emission. Implementation of conversion of old-new kinetic energy key projects effectively constrains carbon emission. This paper presents suggestions according to the modeling results on targeting research input, increasing research input efficiency, issuing saving power and reducing emission policies, encouraging innovation, promoting the conversion of old-new kinetic energy and optimizing industrial structure.