中国煤炭生产和消费与经济增长的关系研究

利用1980—2009年的相关数据，通过协整理论、向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解等方法，对煤炭生产、煤炭消费和经济增长进行动态特性研究。结果表明，经济增长和煤炭生产与消费之间存在协整关系且具有长期均衡关系，煤炭的生产弹性大于煤炭的消费弹性，煤炭生产和消费与经济增长存在正相关关系，煤炭生产和煤炭消费的增加有利于经济的增长。短期内，煤炭生产量和消费量与经济增长存在单向的GRANGER因果关系。同时，从脉冲响应和方差分解分析看，煤炭生产对经济增长具有持续拉动作用，煤炭消费在滞后4期之后对经济增长的影响趋于平稳，煤炭消费对经济增长的影响不如煤炭生产对经济增长的影响。

CORRELATION BETWEEN CHINA’S COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTIONAND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper，based on the data of 1980－2009，uses co-integration theory，vector error correction model，impulse response and variance decomposition to study the dynamic correlation between coal production，coal consumption and economic growth.The results show that there exists a co-integration and long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and coal production and consumption.The coal production flexibility is greater than coal consumption elasticity，and there is a positive correlation between the production and consumption of coal and economic growth，which means that the increase of coal production and coal consumption is conducive to economic growth.In the short term，there is one-way Granger causality from coal production and consumption to economicgrowth.From impulse response and variance decomposition，coal production drives economy continuously，and coal consumption exerts a steady influence on economy after four lagging periods，not as good as coal production.