煤矿煤与瓦斯突出的非线性预测系统研究

煤与瓦斯突出一直是影响煤矿安全生产的重要因素,而对于煤与瓦斯突出的预测一直缺乏有效可靠的预测方法,本论文分析研究了煤与瓦斯突出的机理,及其发生突变的约束条件,在此基础上重点探讨了煤与瓦斯突出的非线性预测系统的设计,给出了系统功能设计和层次结构设计方案,在传统局域预测算法基础上进行了改进,提出了非线性预测算法,仿真结果表明,改进后的预测算法较传统的局域预测算法,具有更低的预测误差和更高的预测可靠性,对于进一步提高煤矿煤与瓦斯突出预测方面的研究,无论是在理论研究方面还是在实际应用方面均具有一定指导和借鉴意义。

Research on Nonlinear Prediction System of Coal and Gas Outburst in Coal Mine

Coal and gas outburst in coal mine is always an important influence factor for safety,there is also lacking effective and reliable method of prediction forecast with coal and gas outburst.This paper analyzes and studies the mechanism of coal and gas outburst,and its getting mutation constraints,then the nonlinear prediction system of coal and gas outburst is designed,which function and structure level are also pointed out;On the other hand,the nonlinear prediction algorithm is given out based on the traditional local prediction algorithm,and the simulation results show that the improved prediction algorithm has lower error and higher reliability than that of the traditional local prediction algorithm.All this work is significative for enhancing the research level of coal and gas outburst in coal mine,both in theoretical and practical applications.